Initial Thoughts on the Bears-Saints Game

1. The Bears are 1.5-3 point favorites as of now for the Saints game. The MGM Mirage handicapper sounds like he would bet on the Saints. He said if the game was played at a neutral site, the Saints would be the favorites.
2. The weather didn't turn out to be correct this week. (It was about a day late with the "wintry mix"--we're getting it as we speak. I hope my flight is not delayed.) For next week, they are predicting windy and cold, no precipitation. The Bears really need a swirling, windy day to hold down the Saints passing attack.
3. To refresh your memory on those playoff success predictors, here they are:

• Overall Defense: .225
• Passing Defense: .174
• Rushing Defense: .242
• Overall Special Teams: .177
• First Down Passing Defense: .293
• First Down Overall Defense: .291
• Road Defense: .258
• Red Zone Defense: .226

And here are how the Bears and Saints match up in the regular season (of the stats I could find):

• Overall Defense: Bears 2nd, Saints 19th
• Passing Defense: Bears 2nd, Saints 22nd
• Rushing Defense: Bears 5th, Saints 20th
• Overall Special Teams: Bears 1st, Saints 14th
• First Down Overall Defense: Bears 13th, Saints 14th
• Red Zone Defense: Bears 12th, Saints 6th

It looks like the Bears still match up well here, but the Saints can kill the Bears with big plays. I also just don't think the Bears can stop the run up the middle anymore without Tommie Harris. Any kind of delay or draw seems to kill the Bears--it uses Urlacher's and Briggs's speed against them.

Initial Thoughts on the Bears-Seahawks Game

1. The weather for Sunday (although predicting 5 days out is iffy) shows possible rain/snow/sleet/the dreaded "wintry mix" and wind gusts up to 35 mph. I'm not sure if that's good or bad for the Bears, but it should make for an interesting game (and great TV ratings). It probably depends whether the wind or the precipitation is more of a factor. It'd probably be best for the Bears if the wind shut down Seattle's passing attack.

2. You always hear about how defense wins championships. Well Football Outsiders ("Moneyball for football") did a study to see what are the best predictors of playoff success (1 being a perfect predictor):

• Overall Defense: .225
• Passing Defense: .174
• Rushing Defense: .242
• Overall Special Teams: .177

It's interesting how offense doesn't really matter, isn't it? Probably a big factor in the Colts' recent dismal performance in the playoffs.

Here are some other, more specific, predictors:

• First Down Passing Defense: .293
• First Down Overall Defense: .291
• Road Defense: .258
• Red Zone Defense: .226

Here are how the Bears and Seahawks match up (of the stats I could find):

• Overall Defense: Bears 2nd, Seahawks 20th
  
• Passing Defense: Bears 2nd, Seahawks 23rd
  
• Rushing Defense: Bears 5th, Seahawks 23rd
  
• Overall Special Teams: Bears 1st, Seahawks 7th
  
• First Down Overall Defense: Bears 13th, Seahawks 24th
  
• Red Zone Defense: Bears 12th, Seahawks 31st

According to these, things look good for the Bears. These stats are for the whole season, however, so I just hope the loss of Tommie Harris and Mike Brown don't hurt too much...